New Delhi: Most part of India will have average or less than average temperature while the eastern, north-eastern, and central regions will experience above-average temperatures and more heatwave days, states Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its forecast as part of the revised seasonal temperature outlook for the hot weather season (April to June) 2026.
At the same time, the weather department has forecast above-normal rainfall for April, offering some relief from rising heat conditions in the early part of the season.
Mixed Summer Ahead
According to the IMD, maximum temperatures during the April–June period are likely to remain normal or below normal across large parts of India. Parts of Central India and the Peninsular region will also be affected by above-average daytime temperatures, contributing to more extreme daytime heat in those areas, while other regions will experience more temperate conditions.
Nights are predicted to remain over average temperature throughout the majority of India. Increased overnight temperatures increase discomfort and potential health risks during extended periods of heat. Only a few areas in Maharashtra and Telangana may experience normal or slightly below-normal minimum temperatures.
April to Bring Rain and Thunderstorms
IMD has predicted that India will receive above-normal rainfall during April 2026. Rainfall amounts for April are anticipated to be higher than average (112 per cent of the long-term average of 39.2 mm). Most areas of the country would receive at least average or above-average rainfall, primarily due to frequent thunderstorms. This rainfall may help regulate temperatures early in April and support agricultural production.
In contrast, North East India is expected to experience lower than average rainfall, raising concerns about available water and agricultural production in that area.
According to IMD DG Mr Mohapatra, rainfall patterns vary substantially across various geographic units, especially where average precipitation is already low. The variability in such regions creates greater difficulty in accurately predicting precipitation amounts. He also pointed to the “white patches” seen in forecast maps, noting that these indicate areas where forecasting models do not show a clear signal, meaning rainfall could be above, below, or near normal.
No Immediate Heatwave
The IMD has said that no major heatwave conditions are expected across most parts of the country in the next two weeks, except for some coastal regions. This is largely due to the presence of frequent western disturbances, which have helped keep temperatures under control.
“March saw an above-normal number of western disturbances, and several more are expected in early April. This will continue to bring rainfall and prevent extreme heat conditions for now,” Mohapatra said.
However, he cautioned that heatwave conditions are likely to develop later in the season, particularly after mid-April, as weather systems weaken and temperatures begin to rise.
Above normal heatwave conditions are expected in East and Central, Northwest and Southeast Peninsula of India. In April itself, coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Andhra Pradesh are expected to experience more heatwave days than usual. Isolated pockets of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka may also be affected.
The IMD has warned that increasing heatwave conditions could have serious implications for public health, water availability, and electricity demand. Children, the old, and workers exposed to outdoor elements are some of the most vulnerable groups.
April Temperature Patterns
Overall, it is expected that much of India will see average or cooler-than-average maximum temperatures this coming April. However, there may be some isolated areas of eastern, northeastern, northwestern and southern India with warmer-than-average maximum temperatures.
Conversely, most of India will have warmer-than-average minimum temperatures this April due to increased cloudiness and humidity in the atmosphere resulting in elevated nighttime temperatures, which will exacerbate discomfort levels for the population.
Both the east and west coasts should have average or warmer-than-average maximum temperatures throughout April with temperatures gradually increasing throughout the month. Central India might experience average or cooler-than-average maximum temperatures early in the month and transition to average or warmer-than-average maximum temperatures at the end of the month.
The IMD has released a warning about frequent thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and gale-force winds affecting numerous areas of the country and these will occur primarily in between 3 pm and 7 pm, posing significant risk to both life and property. The IMD has also released some safety measures for individuals asking them to remain safe during these thunderstorm conditions.
On the issue of cyclone activity, the IMD stated that normally there is no cyclone activity during April in the waters of India. Such activity is more common during May and June, when the monsoon onset phase begins.
Global Climate Conditions
Considering global climate patterns, the IMD noted that neutral conditions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are currently prevailing in the Pacific Ocean. However, some atmospheric features resemble weak La Nina-like conditions.
Based on the latest forecast models, ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral through April-June with the possibility of an El Niño later.
Potential Impact on Agriculture from Heat Stress
The weather forecast raises concerns about heat stress for agriculture due to rising temperatures and increased numbers of heat waves.
Many crops including rice, maize, pulses and vegetables are subject to heat stress during key growth phases, which may depress yields. Late sown wheat and other rabi crops are at risk of acceleration of maturation and low quality due to increased growing season temperatures.
In addition, mangoes and bananas are at risk of flower/fruit drop due to high temperatures. More heat means quicker evaporation of soil moisture, creating additional stress on the crops.
Several advisories have been issued by the IMD to assist farmers in reducing the effects of heat stress, such as applying light, frequent watering during critical plant growth stages and growing heat-resistant crops. To prevent crop loss due to extreme heat, farmers are being urged to harvest their crops as soon as possible. Mulching is highly effective in conserving soil moisture and performing field work during the hottest parts of the day can reduce the risk to human health.
It is important to give animals proper care, including providing shade, proper ventilation, and enough water to keep them hydrated.
As India approaches the hottest part of summer, the IMD’s outlook sends a strong message that even though early rainfall may give temporary relief, the risk of extreme heat later in the season is still a real possibility, therefore, it is important to be prepared.
